GLP-1 Results Projector

Where these percentages come from

The semaglutide figure of 14.9% comes from STEP-1, which followed adults on 2.4 mg weekly for 68 weeks alongside lifestyle counselling.

The tirzepatide figure of 20.9% comes from SURMOUNT-1, which ran for 72 weeks and reported 15.0%, 19.5%, and 20.9% at 5 mg, 10 mg, and 15 mg respectively. The projector uses the highest dose figure.

Both trials paired medication with structured lifestyle support. Neither tested medication in isolation, which matters when interpreting the numbers.

What an average hides

An average is the middle of a wide distribution, not a forecast. In both trials a substantial share of participants exceeded the headline figure, and a minority lost very little despite full adherence.

Response varies with starting BMI, insulin resistance, sleep, protein intake, muscle mass, and factors nobody has yet isolated. There is currently no reliable way to predict which group you fall into before you start.

Treat this projection as the shape of a plausible outcome rather than a target you have been promised.

The timeline is longer than people expect

These results took 68 and 72 weeks. That is well over a year, on a titrated dose, with support. Most of the loss occurred in the first eight to ten months before flattening.

Appetite usually shifts within two to four weeks, which is encouraging early. Meaningful scale movement typically begins around week six. Anyone expecting the headline percentage by month three will be disappointed by a plan that is working normally.

What happens if you stop

Regain after discontinuation is well documented. In the STEP-4 extension, participants who stopped semaglutide regained about two thirds of what they had lost within a year.

This is why we treat obesity as a chronic condition rather than a course of treatment. Many members stay on a maintenance dose long term, and those who taper off do it deliberately over months with habits already established.